Daily Forex Commentary

30 December 2016 - Greenback lower as AUD hits one week high

By Michael Judge

New Zealand Dollar:

    

Investors have continued to square up positions as the end of 2016 looms, a move which has weighed heavily on the world’s reserve currency during overnight trade. Defensive and cautious sums up Thursday’s mood as risk appetite waned and broader volumes remained thin. Not necessarily indicative of a reserving upward channel for the Greenback, this week has been clearly defined by a window in which investors have looked to secure already healthy gains. Trading up above the 0.6950 mark for much of yesterday’s session one New Zealand dollar is currently worth 69.56 US Cents.  

We expect a range today of 0.6920 – 0.6980

Australian Dollar:

Finding around 30 basis points worth of support intraday the Australian dollar tracked back up above the 72 US Cents mark on Thursday. Bolstered by a stronger Yen and a weaker US Dollar the domestic unit has been viewed as the next best alternative over the past 24 hours as volumes in crude oil, equities and currencies all traded well below there daily averages. Reaching its highest level in more than week, the Australian dollar has clearly benefitted amid signs of profit taking as investors look to sell out of long US dollar positions. In what’s shaping as a quiet end to 2016 the Aussie opens stronger buying 72.07 US Cents.

We expect a range today of 0.7170 – 0.7240

Great British Pound:

Whilst failing to distinctively sustain a rally which would see the Sterling advance from levels close to its lowest point in two months there has been some mild upside for the Great British Pound in overnight trade. With several of the major units benefitting from a lower Greenback the Sterling’s experience was a similar one, bouncing from a low of 1.2209 to reach a high of 1.2274. Holding firm at least for the time-being above the 1.2200 handle, economic and fundamental support will need to kick early in the new year should investors look to witness a more convincing recovery. Opening stronger versus the Greenback at a rate of 1.2252 the Sterling is weaker versus both the Australian dollar (1.6997) and the New Zealand dollar (1.7611).

We expect a range today of 1.7550 - 1.7660

Majors:

Rallying for a second day the Japanese Yen strengthened versus the US Dollar on Thursday after a relatively upbeat summary of opinions was released by the Bank of Japan. Signalling a moderate economic recovery the Yens appeal has been given an even more favourable edge amid speculation that the Greenback’s monumental appreciation may have stretched too far. With investors preparing to close out a volatile year, fundamentals are expected to play a bigger role during January following months of positive sentiment driven mainly by Donald Trump’s surprise election win. Following an overnight session void of any substantial market moves US equity markets have stalled as yields on US Treasuries hit a two week low. Temporarily halting the attractiveness of US dollar dominated assets the Yen has taken full advantage with the USD/JPY opening lower at 116.645, meanwhile the 17 nation euro is stronger swapping hands at a rate of 1.0483.

Data releases

AUD:

No data today  

NZD: No data today 

JPY:

 No data today 

GBP:

No data today

EUR:

Spanish Flash CPI y/y

USD:

Chicago PMI, Unemployment Claims

 

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